tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1571730229015763435.post7595332987383523319..comments2010-01-26T11:14:43.156+02:00Comments on Lazy Bear Musings: Common sense testing of SDShamadhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18412957246927291161noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1571730229015763435.post-51475712389963753792009-03-15T21:06:00.000+02:002009-03-15T21:06:00.000+02:00I know Kalon, but over an infinite sample on avera...I know Kalon, but over an infinite sample on average you'd get a crit every 2.5 hits, which was the point. What I was looking for was a point where your reasonable expectation to crit approaches 100% over a longer period, and at which point adding more mobs scales the incoming damage without significantly increasing your expectation of getting a SD-proc.Shamadhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18412957246927291161noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1571730229015763435.post-90577504795970590852009-03-15T20:32:00.000+02:002009-03-15T20:32:00.000+02:00Just FYI - you can't figure out the probability of...Just FYI - you can't figure out the probability of a crit by multiplying the chance per hit by all the hits. Each event is independent. The easiest way to figure it out is to figure out what the chances are of not having any crits in that time (which is multiplicative) and subtracting that from 1 (all probability). So in this case it's <BR/>(1 - (1-crit chance)^number of chances)<BR/><BR/>So in the 2.5 second window, you'll have 1.66 chances per GCD attack and 1.1 chances per white/maul attack, or 2.76 chances. If your crit rate is 40%, that means you have<BR/>1-(1-.4)^(1.66+1.1)=75.6% to get a crit in that 2.5 second window.<BR/><BR/>If you raise your crit rate by 10%, you get an 83% chance to get a crit.Kalonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05193899462301079034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1571730229015763435.post-42800299149135669742009-03-15T00:44:00.000+02:002009-03-15T00:44:00.000+02:00Basicly this is "ideal conditions" for SD, which m...Basicly this is "ideal conditions" for SD, which means assuming no double-procs, no proc-less streaks and no avoidance. It's meant to be the absolutely best possible result for SD. Real world applications will be, as you pointed out, often worse than this best-case-scenario, so in effect SD is weaker than the situation the post outlines.<BR/><BR/>Suppose I should have explained my methology about these things to begin with. Ah well.Shamadhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18412957246927291161noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1571730229015763435.post-63505188736758492422009-03-15T00:35:00.000+02:002009-03-15T00:35:00.000+02:00You calculate it has an average proc per 2.5 secon...You calculate it has an average proc per 2.5 seconds. The thing is that you forgot to calculate the double proc change (2 procs between boss' hits), to which you hinted by mentioning slow hitting bosses.<BR/><BR/>But even with normal hitting bosses you will see that maul and swipe will be done really fast after eachother. If both crit you will loose one shield to that.<BR/><BR/>Making a guess calculation on a swipe cycle of 1.5 and a maul cycle of 2.5 seconds I guess that 40% (1 - 1.5/2.5) of the time you will have both hits close to eachother (again this math is just a guess, it lacks all scientific prove for this statement, and it heavily depends on how fast the boss hits).<BR/>There is a 40%^2 chance both hits will proc. That is 16% chance of a wasted proc.<BR/><BR/>So I'd say if your calculations above are 100% then recalculate them to 86%.<BR/>For instance 1 proc ever 2.5 sec = 0.86 proc every 2.5 sec = 1 proc 2.9 seconds.<BR/><BR/>In this calculation I failed to factor in dodge. With high dodge nearly every boss known will become a slow hitting boss. I think SD shield will make us very sucky MTs.Marinohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14500509588523749784noreply@blogger.com